Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 186.950603 228.848981 281.546433 354.118529 453.817300 5.896956e+02 7.958608e+02
2025-02-09 142.054692 190.600001 260.154736 372.010363 557.988964 8.779550e+02 1.534732e+03
2025-02-16 116.251544 165.830322 243.536468 383.571834 654.469146 1.226041e+03 2.817121e+03
2025-02-23 99.180245 148.073301 230.125860 392.077053 748.445009 1.657307e+03 5.165440e+03
2025-03-02 84.547930 130.347661 211.073380 381.573188 796.613005 2.039550e+03 8.650997e+03
2025-03-09 73.661803 116.561248 195.287167 371.375126 839.985953 2.473723e+03 1.484221e+04
2025-03-16 64.624706 104.345781 179.579714 355.780547 860.800419 2.875496e+03 2.489776e+04
2025-03-23 62.084617 103.408684 185.634356 392.953472 1065.796720 4.496874e+03 9.419625e+04
2025-03-30 57.279926 97.358797 179.747029 398.156956 1172.627805 5.961290e+03 3.512711e+05
2025-04-06 54.069635 93.902004 178.698830 416.243722 1348.663773 8.702428e+03 6.058284e+06
2025-04-13 49.701261 87.492781 169.753015 408.586816 1412.475211 1.088996e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 48.629915 87.707976 176.257154 450.954307 1769.072687 2.021860e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 47.013413 86.735360 180.234107 489.637787 2192.379250 4.119330e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 45.118305 84.901778 181.747265 521.599194 2656.191861 9.139837e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 42.894849 82.016348 179.897208 540.647508 3086.868698 2.123520e+05 NaN
2025-05-18 40.713660 78.937579 176.908869 554.270914 3528.199275 5.876877e+05 NaN
2025-05-25 37.876306 73.985345 167.745978 537.699369 3641.565062 1.185938e+06 NaN
2025-06-01 35.358858 69.536940 159.341953 521.652149 3747.059259 2.799862e+06 NaN
2025-06-08 32.880099 64.941887 149.827672 497.238513 3713.275312 5.699846e+06 NaN
2025-06-15 32.676367 65.848396 156.852189 555.702696 5049.157576 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 31.291292 63.671587 154.056052 563.958897 5691.135583 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 30.419847 62.695854 154.889288 592.791283 6954.107176 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 28.840935 59.753869 148.895125 580.559886 7275.400550 NaN NaN